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The delivery date of the Shanghai Jiaotong 809 contract has suppressed the weakness of the forward contract.

the Shanghai Jiaotong recent month contract ru809 has entered the delivery month. How large is the final physical delivery scale of the contract? What impact will it have on the trend of subsequent contracts? The author makes a discussion here

due to the serious differences on the trend of the rubber market, the main forces of both long and short positions invested a large amount of incremental funds. The position of ru809 reached the record of the largest position of a single contract in the history of 160080 Shanghai rubber trading on June 25. Later, although both parties gradually withdrew the deposited funds from the market, the contract was wide-ranging and the long and short funds went in and out repeatedly, resulting in the position not being reduced unilaterally, but showing the characteristics of repeated increase and decrease

from June 30 to July 2, ru809 positions increased from 130460 to 135970, with 5512 positions increased; From July 3 to 7, ru809's position increased from 124410 to 152040, with a position increase of 27630; From July 16 to July 21, ru809 positions increased by 98340 and 6708 from 91630; From July 28 to July 29, ru809 positions increased from 88494 to 89774, with 1280 positions increased; From August 5 to August 11, ru809 positions increased from 55554 to 60740, with 5186 positions increased; From August 14 to August 15, ru809 positions increased by 54170 and 1380 from 52790

within the above-mentioned date, ru809 increased its position by a large margin and a large time span, and the last position increase was postponed to August of the month before the delivery month, while the maximum position increase reached 27630. As a result, the position base of the contract was large and the reduction was slow

on the other hand, with the gradual reduction of ru809's position scale, its position reduction range has also been reduced accordingly, and the speed of position reduction has also been slowing down. Among them, from June 25 to September 3, the trading day when the record of the largest position was set, the position of ru809 was reduced from 160080 to 28016, 132064 positions were reduced in 49 trading days, and the daily average position was reduced by 2695; From August 15 to September 3, the first day of the position reduction cycle, the position of ru809 was reduced from 54170 to 28016. In 13 trading days, 26154 positions were reduced in AK, and the daily average position was reduced by 2012; From September 1 to September 3, the first trading day of the delivery month, ru809 positions were reduced from 29544 to 28016, and 1528 positions were reduced in two trading days, with an average of 764 positions per day

the range of daily average position reduction between the above dates has been continuously reduced. The reason is that as the delivery period of ru809 approaches, the trading margin of ru809 increases from 5% to 40%, the trading costs of both long and short sides increase, and the speculative funds continue to exit. With the continuous withdrawal of small and medium-sized speculative funds, the proportion of rubber related enterprises and institutions in the on-site precipitation funds has increased significantly. The above-mentioned funds have the characteristics of strong financial strength, otherwise the weight of the finished products will decline and the performance of the finished products will be damaged, and they can be converted between unilateral speculation and accepting the selling firm offer

according to the latest daily average position reduction of ru809 of nearly 800, there are still 9 trading days left in ru809 from September 3 to September 15, the last trading day, and the total position reduction may reach 7200. The final position of the contract may be more than 21000, that is, more than 10500 unilateral positions, or more than 52500 tons. As of August 29, the latest number of warehouse receipts registered by HuJiao was 21440 tons, or 4288. Therefore, the short side must register more than 6000 warehouse receipts, or more than 30000 tons, over the weekend of August 5 and 12 to meet the demand for physical delivery

according to the current ranking analysis of the main forces of ru809 multi air, the main forces of the multi air are mainly Zhejiang capital, huare Asia and other spot traders, while the main forces of the end of air experimental machine calibration are Sinochem International (8.69,0.09,1.05%), Yunnan Agricultural Reclamation and other spot traders and speculative funds. Therefore, it is speculated that the final delivery parties of ru809 may present the following arrangement: first, if consumers buy and producers sell, the spot supply and demand parties directly complete the delivery in the futures market, which has a weak impact on the trend of subsequent contracts; Second, the buying of consumers and the selling of futures and cash arbitrage traders also have a weak impact on the trend of subsequent contracts of Shanghai Jiaotong. As the warehouse receipts come from the rubber market in the production area, they also have a strong positive effect on the spot goods in the production area; Third, speculators buy and producers sell, and speculators also need to transfer the warehouse receipts they undertake to the subsequent contracts or the spot market, which constitutes a repressive effect on both futures and cash markets; Fourth, speculators buy and futures arbitrage traders sell. Although the registered warehouse receipts come from the rubber market in the production area, which is beneficial to the production of non-toxic and efficient rubber markets in other areas, speculators also need to transfer the warehouse receipts they undertake to subsequent contracts, which is bad for the Shanghai Rubber forward contracts

due to the large scale of funds in Zhejiang among the main players of various parties, and the large proportion of spot traders among the main players of the short side, the final delivery of ru809 may show a pattern of speculators buying and spot traders selling, and constitute a reverse repression on the forward contracts dominated by ru811 in Shanghai Jiao, which has also become one of the reasons for the continuous decline of ru811

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